China’s PMI Figure for September
October 03, 2012
(In an interview with CCTV News on October
3, 2012, Prof. Zhu Ning, Deputy Director of SAIF, talked about the rising of official
purchasing managers' index for China in September, indicating the first upturn
after three months of successive declines)
There are
probably two points to look at these figures. First of all, as the number is
still about 50, which means that the non-manufacturing section of the economy
is still expanding? Of course, the number has dropped quite significantly from
the previous month’s number, which means that the economy is still expanding
but not as fast as it used to be in the past two months.
The
non-manufacturing section of the economy is still going to be expanding, there
are probably two reasons. One is, the non-manufacturing section of the economy
relies that on exports, we know that the Europe crisis is still lingering
around which is still affecting the manufacturing part of Chinese economy. So,
the non-manufacturing part of the economy is picking up whether to be well. And
another reason is, as the economy as well as GDP grows, it is a trend that the
non-manufacturing part of the economy would be getting more proportion of the
employee economy. So, given that historical pattern, it is likely that the
non-manufacturing section of the economy would still keep expanding although it
may be not as fast as before not as fast as some others would wish to see.